PERAMALAN HARGA JAGUNG MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ARIMA

Abstract

Corn is one of the important commodities in Indonesia. Corn price movements sometimes have certain fluctuations and trends. Because corn is an important commodity and its price movements greatly influence other sectors, a method is needed to forecast corn prices. This research aims to forecast corn prices using the ARIMA model. The data used is monthly data on corn prices from March 2019 to March 2023. The best model produced in this research is ARIMA(2,2,2). This model meets the criteria for white noise and residual normality and is the model with the smallest SSE and MSE values. This model is used to predict corn prices in Indonesia in the next 12 months. The forecast results show that the corn price trend is likely to increase until May 2024. This is possible because in the past two to three years the corn price trend has indeed increased slowly.